June 23rd 2019 by

Cracked Leather. Shattered Glass. Unhappy Brexit 3rd Anniversary!

Modern English might claim it's Mesh and Lace, but for modern Britain, Sunday 23rd June 2019 is Leather and Glass. The third Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum finds the Brexit debacle no closer to a resolution. As written on this site previouly ,"The Brexit vote was a momentous referendum." It was not a local or Paliamentary election whose result can be reversed within a relatively short period of time. This was a vote that would restore the sovereignty of a nation, albeit a 'United Kingdom'. However, the notion that those who voted to Leave were unaware of the repercussions of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union is both insulting and ignorant. This was not a snap referendum. It was the will of the United Kingdom people being exercised after a long and thoughtful period where both sides had ample opportunity to weigh the gravity of their democratically delivered decision. The result was unequivocal. The future of the United Kingdom should be as an independent, sovereign State.

After a very strong showing by the newly formed Brexit Party in the recent European Elections, polls indicate that the desire for Brexit, no pun intended, remains strong. But will this be enough to avoid further anniversaries? Might we see a Wooden gift exchange in two years? Though the Conservative Party Leadership contest is down to the final two it is still not clear what this means for Brexit. Jeremy Hunt, should be buck the odds and prevail, is a definite Remainer and unlikely to pursue with vigour an exit strategy that would see the October 31st deadline met. Boris Johnson, the clear favourite to succeed Theresa May, has not always been a committed Brexiteer and most fear his 'strategy' is just more of Theresa May's, 'Please Sir, I wan't some more!'. No-one, except Johnson has any confidence that Messr. Barnier will be any more compassionate than Mr. Bumble and that he, Barnier, will not move one inch, nor indeed one centimetre, to help Britain out of the impasse that is effectively stifling government and exacerbating the deep division within the United Kingdom. Today's French Resistance led by Messr. Barnier will be used on this occasion to fight Britain and aid Germany and he knows that the new British Prime Minister will have to counter resistance not only from opposing political parties in the British Parliament, but even from within his own party. Boris Johnson may have the unenviable task of having to appoint a Cabinet that he knows cannot be fully trusted and that will actively oppose him from the outset on the one issue the country needs to resolve. So many paths seem to lead to Johnson, if he is the next Prime Minister, calling an early General Election in an attempt to get the support of the country.

Subsequent to Brecon and Radnorshire Conservative MP Chris Davies losing his seat after a successful recall petition, there will be a by-election in that constituency after which the next Conservative Prime Minister might find his working majority down to a mere two in Parliament as the Lib-Dems are expected to pick up the seat. The Conservative vote not only will suffer from the midterm blues, but have to fight off the newly formed Brexit Party whose Chairman Richard Tice confirmed his party's intention to contest the seat. "The sheer scale of the vote to force a recall and a by-election shows how strongly the level of dissatisfaction with politics in the country is rising up the agenda," he said. "The Brexit Party will be contesting the forthcoming by-election. It is clear that people of this county want to change politics for good."

The next few months in Britain is critical and the October 31st deadline looms large. The two parties that have clear Brexit positions, The Leave Brexit Party and the Remain Liberal-Democrat party, are sure to benefit from being unequivocal, whereas the two 'main' parties, The Conservative Party and the Labour Party, who have equivocated and dissembled the past three years away find themselves untrusted and seemingly unable or unwilling to make clear their position. What is evident is that both Parliamentary bodies of the latter two parties have different issues to resolve. The Labour Party under a hapless Corbyn would like to declare itself a Remain party but know that millions of it's voters would probably feel betrayed and switch to Nigel Farage's Brexit Party. The Conservative Party have a considerable number of MP's who are simply ignoring the wishes of their own constituents who voted to leave the European Union and it may be time for Conservative constituencies to make known their unhappiness and disgust by employing a recall process.

Again, to quote from a recent Fragile Republic article, "What is at stake here is a Democratic vote being honoured. The people have to accept results that give them governments they don't want and governments in a democracy must accept election results that they do not like. Had the vote been to remain in the European Union it would have been accepted and the country moved on. If the British people are simply ignored and given a diluted Brexit in the hope that they will be ground down into giving up in exasperation, then they have been greatly misjudged. Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party and the British people will not go gently into that good night. We might be seeing a real change in British politics."


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