May 7th 2019 by

The Brexit Party surges to the top of the EU Election polls.

European Union Election Poll

The latest European Election polls in the UK indicate that the Brexit Party, formed only this year by Nigel Farage, has jumped into the lead. British Prime Minister Theresa May may have most to lose as polling also shows 3 out of 5 Conservative voters plan to switch to the Brexit Party and in the short life of the Brexit Party, its membership has already risen to 85,000, two thirds of what the Conservative Party has in its ranks. Regardless of how the Brexit Party fares in the EU election it is certain to be seen as a referendum on Europe and perhaps moreso of Prime Minister Theresa May's handling of the Brexit negotiations, or as many see it, mishandling. Are the Tory establishment willing to take one for the remain team, confident that the ship can be righted in future British elections?

This election is not without irony. Historically in the UK, elections to the European Parliament have never mustered much enthusiasm and this is one time Theresa May might have wished that custom to continue. Prime Minister May is under increasing pressure from her backbenchers to resign and her failure to prevent Britain being forced to vote in the upcoming EU elections, (23rd May), compounded by a humiliating defeat by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party will surely lead to a back bench rebellion and a vote of no-confidence. The treasurer of the influential 1922 Committee, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said he would back a grass roots bid to force Mrs May out with a no-confidence vote next month if she did not go of her own volition. This upcoming EU election must feel like a straitjacket around the Conservative Party with no hope of a Houdini like escape. Had Mrs May shown greater courage and not yielded to an undemocratic campaign to overturn the Brexit result this upcoming election might not be taking place and possibly there would have been no need for the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party is the child born of betrayal.

The first Brexit vote was a momentous election but the subsequent drama that has unfolded has led to an even greater and possibly graver situation. This should be seen as a defining moment on the British, European and World stage with deep and long lasting repercussions that have have greater import than the original referendum. The European Union stands less firm as member nations assert their sovereign rights, but more worrying is the fact that the result of a national election might be overturned by a simple strategy of ignoring the 'democratic' will of the people. There were no protests and demonstrations when Britain voted to join the European Union. When the Conservatives gained control of the UK Government there was no 'let's ignore it and hope they go away'. The people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The Brexit Party under the leadership of Nigel Farage are in a situation that is very different to previous protest votes, after which normal service is resumed and the protests wane. The original Brexit vote was the will of the United Kingdom people being exercised after a long and thoughtful period where both sides had ample opportunity to weigh the gravity of their decision. What is at stake here is a Democratic vote being honoured. The people have to accept results that give them governments they don't want and governments in a democracy must accept election results that they do not like. Had the vote been to remain in the European Union it would have been accepted and the country moved on. If the British people are simply ignored and given a diluted Brexit in the hope that they will be ground down into giving up in exasperation, then they have been greatly misjudged. Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party and the British people will not go gently into that good night. We might be seeing a real change in British politics. Although the fallout will not only affect the Conservative Party it seems that Mrs May will be the first casualty.


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